Summary
TAM grows to $4B in 3 years. Why it matters: Diversified RWA stablecoins sustain 5-7% yield from real credit as crypto funding compresses to ~4%. GENI…
Robinhood is seeing growing demand for prediction markets tied to bitcoin, gold and oil, as traders increasingly look beyond sports and elections to bet on moves in financial markets.
Price volatility contracts tied to those assets are among the fastest-growing products in prediction markets, according to JB Mackenzie, VP and GM for futures and prediction markets at Robinhood.
Sports is the largest product the platform offers, said Mackenzie at the NEXTPredict conference in New York on Thursday. However, he said there is a shift in how people use the platform.
"We've now started to see price volatility contracts, such as bitcoin, crude oil, gold, start to dominate the marketplace, and they're the fastest growing products that are out there," Mackenzie said.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy contracts based on whether an event will happen, with prices reflecting the market's implied probability of an outcome. A contract might ask whether bitcoin will trade above a certain price at a set time, giving traders a way to take a position without buying the cryptocurrency itself.
The market has grown from its roots in elections into sports, economic data and short-term price bets. Robinhood entered the business through a partnership with Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market exchange, and has since made event contracts a growing part of its trading platform.
The expansion comes as sports contracts face legal challenges from state gambling regulators, raising questions about how much of that market will remain available.
Financial contracts could offer another source of growth.
Mackenzie said Robinhood's largest event contract in September wasn't tied to sports but to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, reflecting growing interest in economic events.
Traders are also moving toward shorter contracts, particularly in crypto, where some products now settle in as little as 15 minutes.
"It started off with a week. It's moved to a day, and now we're down to 15 [minutes]," he said.
Asked about the risks, he compared 15-minute crypto contracts to zero-day options, which expire on the same trading day. Both can produce rapid losses, though their structures differ.
For Robinhood, prediction markets are also becoming a way to bring customers into its other businesses. Mackenzie said users who arrive at the trade event contracts often begin exploring stocks, cryptocurrencies, futures and options. Some also discover the platform's individual retirement accounts.
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"What you see them do is almost immediately start to build out into equities, crypto, futures, options," he said.
Robinhood has 11 businesses generating more than $100 million in annual revenue each, Mackenzie said, noting that prediction markets could be the company’s fastest-growing segment among them.
Beyond the Risk-Free Rate: Diversified Real World Yield in Productive Stablecoins
Diversified RWA stablecoins sustain 5-7% yield from real credit as crypto funding compresses to ~4%. GENIUS pushes yield off-chain; TAM grows to $4B in 3 years.
Why it matters:
Diversified RWA stablecoins sustain 5-7% yield from real credit as crypto funding compresses to ~4%. GENIUS pushes yield off-chain; TAM grows to $4B in 3 years.
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